By 2040, England’s population aged 16 and over is projected to grow by 6%, adding significant pressure to an already strained housing market. At least 385,800 social homes are estimated to be lost by then, exacerbating the crisis. Addressing the housing in construction shortfall is vital if we are to meet the needs of future generations.
This blog explores the scale of the problem, the demographic trends shaping housing demand, and what must be done to ensure England’s housing stock is fit for purpose in 2040.
The Housing Shortfall: A Critical Issue
Between 2015-16 and 2021-22, more than 295,000 social rent properties in England were sold or demolished, with only 16% replaced. At this rate, an additional 385,800 social homes will disappear by 2040, leaving a growing number of families without access to affordable housing.
Compounding this issue is the affordability crisis. In 2023, only 7% of local authority areas in England had homes priced at less than five times the average earnings. This is a stark decline compared to 1997 when 88% of areas were affordable by this measure. Addressing the housing in construction shortfall is critical to reversing this trend.
Demographic Pressures
First-Time Buyers
First-time buyers, typically aged 25 to 44, remain an essential segment of the housing market. By 2040, this demographic is expected to decline by 1.57% nationally. However, these individuals are the teenagers and young adults living with their parents today, meaning demand for entry-level housing will remain significant.
Ensuring these new entrants can access affordable, well-located homes is essential for a functioning housing market.
Later Living
England’s ageing population poses additional challenges. The 66+ age group is set to increase by 37% by 2040. Many of these individuals will live in underoccupied homes, with an estimated 52% projected to occupy properties with two or more surplus bedrooms.
A lack of suitable options for downsizing, or “rightsizing,” creates a bottleneck in the housing market. Older residents often remain in larger homes, blocking younger families from accessing properties that meet their needs.
Regional Variations
By 2040, England’s 16+ population will rise to almost 50 million. Greater London and the East Midlands are projected to grow the fastest, each expecting 12% increases.
Interestingly, in regions like the East and North East, there will be more people aged 66+ than in the 25 to 44 age group, defying national trends. Addressing regional needs requires tailored approaches to housing in construction, ensuring the right homes are built in the right locations.
The Scale of Construction Needed
To meet rising demand, at least 5.4 million homes must be built across England by 2040. However, many experts argue that this figure is conservative.
Heriot-Watt University suggests the need is closer to 340,000 new homes annually, of which 145,000 should be affordable. The Centre for Cities goes further, recommending 442,000 homes a year to solve the crisis by 2048.
Despite these ambitious targets, the current pace of construction falls far short. Over the past decade, England has averaged only 215,500 homes per year, leaving the government’s target of 300,000 annual builds unmet.
Tackling Housing in Construction
Beyond Numbers
While meeting housing targets is essential, building homes solely to hit quotas risks neglecting the specific needs of local populations. A national housing policy should focus on creating homes of varying types and tenures, particularly in high-demand areas like London and the South East.
Regeneration projects, a systematic review of green belt land, and an in-depth understanding of socio-economic needs are key to unlocking areas of opportunity.
Planning for the Long Term
The planning system in England requires reform to ensure development aligns with long-term goals. However, the barriers are not just systemic.
A broader issue lies in public perception. Development is often seen as undesirable, driven by government rhetoric that highlights potential negatives rather than showcasing the benefits.
A proactive approach to planning is needed. One that leverages data to anticipate future needs and prioritises sustainability. By demonstrating how new developments can enhance communities, policymakers can begin to shift public attitudes.
Political Commitment
Political short-termism remains a major obstacle. Delivering the homes England needs requires bold measures and a willingness to tackle controversial issues. This includes addressing intergenerational unfairness, reducing housing costs, and improving social mobility.
Politicians must prioritise the needs of future residents over short-term gains, implementing policies that create a balanced, functional housing market.
How Can The Diggerland Plant Training School Help?
As part of addressing the housing crisis, the Diggerland Plant Training School plays a vital role in equipping the workforce with essential skills. The construction industry needs a steady pipeline of trained professionals to meet housing demand.
By offering accredited courses on heavy machinery operation, such as Excavator 360, Roller or Dumper training to name a few, we can help ensure that the sector can deliver projects on time and to a high standard. Skilled operators are essential for maintaining safety, efficiency, and quality on construction sites.
Our instructors can carry out training for a wide range of NPORS accredited courses. View our full list here.
Contact Us Today To Book Your NPORS Training
If you work within the construction industry, particularly within the housing sector, get in touch to book your training.
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All information correct as of: 4th December 2024.
